There is no Home Run Derby Jinx

The Home Run Derby will be held tonight in Yankee Stadium. But a question has always popped up whenever it is time for the Home Run Derby. Does it really screw up hitters swings? Alex Rodriguez, third baseman for the New York Yankees, was asked to participate in the Derby but declined for fear of hurting his swing. This is a player that is often vilified in the New York tabloids, who could have taken part in the Home Run Derby in his very own backyard in front of his hometown fans but decided against it. He is a player that just hit his 537th home run, passing Yankee great Mickey Mantle for 13th on the all-time list. Yet even though it would be amazing for the fans, help his image, and given him a chance to become part of the legend of Yankee Stadium, a player that is closing in on the home run record held by Barry Bonds at a furious rate, felt that the Home Run Derby would hurt his swing in the second half.

This seems quite odd. Every year there appears to be a Home Run Derby curse on the players who make it to the finals. But is there any truth to it? Can this event truly hurt the mechanics of a ballplayers swing for months afterward? These are premiere athletes, maybe Prince Fielder is a wee bit over weight, but everyone in this showcase tonight is lean and full of muscle. Surely the likes of Canadian Justin Morneau, Grady Sizemore, Evan Longoria, Josh Hamilton, Chase Utley, Dan Uggla, Ryan Braun, and Lance Berkman are good enough not to let taking a few pure power swings in a row hurt them for months.

Looking at that list a little closer it is remarkable to see the athleticism. Uggla and Utley play second base for the Florida Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies respectively. A middle infield position usually associated with smaller fielding specialists, not power. First baseman Justin Morneau and Lance Berkman are your typical homerun hitters, but Berkman has 15 stolen bases this year! Mourneau is the only player in the Derby without a stolen base this season. Uggla has four, Evan Longoria has six, Josh Hamilton has seven, Ryan Braun has eight, Utley has 10, and Grady Sizemore has 22. There is a combined 72 stolen bases between the eight competitors to go along with their combined 167 homeruns.

But is there any truth to the theory that the Home Run Derby can hurt the mechanics of a players swing for weeks and months to come? Let’s look at some of the most recent finalist and see what they did in the second half of those seasons. In 1998 and 1999 Ken Griffey Jr won consecutive Home Run Derby’s in Coor’s Field in Colorado and then in Fenway Park in Boston. It was in 1999 though that he pulled out because he didn’t want to damage his swing for the second half of the season. Fans were obviously upset and Griffey ended up participating and winning with 16 home runs. His stats before and after the break in 1998 show us he might have been right as he hit 35 hr’s before the All-Star break and 21 after.

The past five winners have shown minimal decline. Garret Anderson of the Angels hit 22 home runs before the 2003 Derby and only seven after. In 2004 winner Miguel Tejada hit 15 home runs before the Derby and 19 homeruns after it. In 2005 Bobby Abreu won with a total of 41 home runs in the Derby. He hit 18 before the All-Star break and only six afterward. In 2006 Ryan Howard won and hit 28 home runs before the Derby and 30 after it for a total of 58 on the season. Last year’s winner Vladimir Guerrero had 14 home runs before the break and 13 after.

The stats show that it is really hit and miss whether the player struggles after winning the Home Run Derby or not. Past contestants that have gone on to struggle like Abreu and last year’s runner-up Alex Rios were not mashers anyway. Abreu and Rios are players that have 25-HR power and if they get into a month long slump it reflects in their season home run totals more drastically than a Ryan Howard. Howard seemingly can hit 40 home runs in his sleep.

If a player doesn’t want to risk hurting his swing then I can understand that the swing is a mechanically detailed athletic act. But the timing and mechanics would never hurt a fantastic player to the point that they slump for three months afterward. There’s no question that it could mess with a hitters timing and mechanics for about a week. But good players will always adjust. The only reason a slump from the Home Run Derby would last longer than a week is because the player starts pressing and only tries to hit home runs rather than naturally swinging like they always do.

In the end, there is no real home run jinx. We can enjoy watching the players participating tonight continue their fantastic seasons throughout the rest of the summer, and for some, into October.

-Michael DiPetta